Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
